Bitcoin reaches $48,000 for the first time since January

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Speculative investments have been performing exceptionally well for a number of consecutive days. The S&P 500 Index has achieved five consecutive weeks of gains, while Bitcoin has also experienced a significant increase of over 10+% this week, suggesting strong buying activity from investors. The ETF data indicates a significant increase of $2.7 billion in investments into the nine Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), while there has been a decrease in outflows from Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) to $51+ million. The ETFs’ total assets under management have experienced a significant increase, reaching over $10 billion. While Bitcoin may be stealing the spotlight, certain cryptocurrencies such as Ethereum, Chainlink, and Solana are beginning to gain traction.

Fundamental Updates

Let’s delve into the significant developments shaping the crypto market landscape:

  • Positive sentiment surrounding the Ethereum ETF: On January 10, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) of the United States approved ten spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), enabling American investors to purchase securities backed by the cryptocurrency. Since they launched on open markets on January 11, spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen billions of dollars come in. After years of rejections, the licensing of spot Bitcoin ETFs marked a turning point in the history of Bitcoin. But with the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs, all eyes are now on spot Ethereum ETH ETF applications, with a final deadline in May. Like Bitcoin ETF filings in 2023, BlackRock, ARK Invest, Fidelity, Invesco Galaxy, and others are filing for a spot Ether ETF. Ark has the first spot Ether ETF application in September 2023, followed by BlackRock and others.

Ethereum ETF Data  Source:Bloomberg

However, the SEC may take quite a while to approve Ethereum due to its unique technology, capabilities, and complex history and circumstances. The SEC may monitor the Bitcoin ETF market before approving another cryptocurrency ETF. The SEC rejected Grayscale’s and BlackRock’s applications to convert their Ethereum trusts to ETFs, despite institutional interest validating the market. The main factor may be Ether’s security or commodity status.

  • Minor SEC Win in Case Involving Ripple (XRP): On Monday, Judge Sarah Netburn ruled in favor of the SEC, ordering Ripple Labs to provide its 2022-2023 financial records. Ripple must also disclose institutional XRP sales profits to establish the necessity and reasonableness of an injunction. Ripple argued that its financial standing was irrelevant to the SEC’s request.
  • The court decided that there was no justification for bypassing that investigation by preventing access to easily obtained data that would be relevant at the remedy stage.
  • This verdict follows Ripple’s protest of the SEC’s financial document request last month.After the SEC sued Ripple in 2020 for $1.3 billion in unregistered securities transactions, the dispute has continued. Last year, a judge ruled that programmatic XRP sales to regular investors were not securities transactions, giving Ripple a partial triumph. Investors and Ripple Labs saw the judge’s ruling that $728 million in institutional sales contracts were unregistered securities sales as a victory for the cryptocurrency industry.

Key Data Points:

Key Data Points For Crypto Markets
  • Total market capitalization: The total market capitalization of the crypto market is currently around $1.88 trillion. This is a net $180 Billion change from last week.
  • Bitcoin dominance: Bitcoin dominance, which tracks the percentage of the total market capitalization that is held by Bitcoin, is currently at around 50%. This is 2.45% up from last week.
  • ETH dominance: ETH dominance, which tracks the percentage of the total market capitalization that is held by Ethereum, is currently at around 15.9%. This is 1.24% down from last week.

Bitcoin Price Analysis:

The recent surge in Bitcoin’s value has encountered significant resistance in the $49,000-$50,000 range, setting the stage for an intense battle between buyers and sellers.  If the price surpasses $49,000, there is a possibility that the BTC/USDT pair could gain momentum and move towards $52,000. If this level is overcome, the rally has the potential to reach $54,000.

On the other hand, if the price experiences a significant decline from its current level, it may suggest a potential period of consolidation within the range of $43,000 to $48,000 for a few days.  If the bears manage to push the price below $42,500, it could indicate the beginning of a more significant decline. However, if they are unable to do so, the short-term momentum will continue to be bullish.

Bitcoin Price Analysis Graph

BTC Technical Indicator:

BTC Technical Indicator

Macro Updates:

  • Chinese leaders have changed the securities regulator’s leadership, signalling grave concerns over the stock market’s continued decline.
  •  Yi Huiman’s departure as CSRC chief shows President Xi Jinping’s urgency to solve the market collapse that has wiped off $5 trillion in value over four years. 
  • US budget deficits are expected to rise from $1.6 trillion to $2.6 trillion during the next decade. This roughly two-thirds increase is due to rising interest rates, which raise government debt servicing costs.
  • S&P 500 closed at a record high at $5,000+, with market players focusing on corporate earnings and Fed interest rate anticipations. Despite market improvements, New York Community Bancorp developments raised banking and commercial real estate concerns.
  •  However, investors were hopeful after hearing Federal Reserve officials discuss interest rates and looked forward to additional corporate earnings reports.

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